The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) expressed serious concern over the economic impact of the recent floods in several northern provinces, saying if the situation continued for a further month, the financial damage could exceed 10 billion baht.
Citing estimates from the TCC and the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, TCC chairman Sanan Angubolkul said on Monday damage from the current flooding in the North would cost about 8 billion baht, or 0.05% of GDP if the situation improved over the next fortnight.
He also pointed out that the agriculture sector had been forced to endure the greatest financial hit, at 7.17 billion baht, accounting for 89.6% of the total. The service sector followed with estimated damages of 693 million baht while the industrial sector damage was estimated at 139 million baht.
In terms of provinces affected by inundation, Chiang Rai suffered the most severe damage, estimated at 3.63 billion baht, followed by Phayao, with damage estimated at 2 billion baht and Sukhothai, with damage estimated at 1.36 billion baht.
However, several other provinces were at risk of being flooded. If the situation continues for another month, financial damage could exceed 10 billion baht, or 0.06% of GDP, according to Mr Sanan.
He suggested that the government set up a forward command centre chaired by the prime minister and draw up a comprehensive flood response plan to manage runoff from the north.
“The government should also prepare for more rainfall expected this month and in October, which can cause further flooding,” he said, noting advance planning can mitigate impacts and minimise damage both to the people and the economy.
Mr Sanan also stressed a need for the government to prepare a rehabilitation plan for people and businesses, which should include debt suspension, interest rate cuts and more soft loans.
Bangkok at lower risk
However, the TCC chairman said there was little chance Bangkok and neighbouring provinces would experience flooding worse than in 2011.
He cited five factors to back his assumption: less accumulated rainfall this year; fewer rainstorms are predicted; major dams can hold more water; water levels in main rivers are currently low; and the flow rate in the Chao Phraya River is currently lower.
Meanwhile, the Chao Phraya Dam will soon begin discharging more water as the river rises, swollen by the northern runoff.
Thanet Soomboon, director of the Water Management and Hydrology Bureau, said on Monday the release rate would be increased over the next five days days as water from the northern floods was heading rapidly downstream into provinces in the central region.
The Office of National Water Resources on Monday released an alert on possible flash floods in all regions throughout this week. Provinces on alert included Sukhothai, Phitsanulok, Nong Khai, Rayong, Phuket and Surat Thani.