The inbound Chinese market next year should remain flat and is unlikely to change much from 2024 with around 7-8 million arrivals, attributed to persistent economic challenges in China, including the impact of the incoming Trump administration's anticipated tariff hikes, according to the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta).
Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, president of Atta, said it would not be easy for Thailand to gain 9 million Chinese tourists in 2025, which is the target set by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
"The growth of this year would still largely depend on global geopolitical tension and the Chinese economic situation," said Mr Sisdivachr.
As of Dec 8, Thailand had welcomed 32.7 million foreign tourists, with China being the largest market with 6.3 million arrivals.
With 15,000-20,000 Chinese tourists per day visiting Thailand, the overall number of Chinese tourists recorded this year should not exceed 6.9-7 million, below TAT's target of 7.3 million, he said.
Despite a permanent mutual visa exemption scheme between Thailand and China, which began in this year's first quarter, other major economic factors were not favourable in terms of the inbound Chinese market.
He said China's domestic tourism promotion, real estate slump, weak consumption and a high rate of unemployment among its young people had caused weaker purchasing power for overseas trips.
He said it was apparent that over the past year the Chinese government had not been keen to support outbound tour companies in the same way they did prior to the pandemic, while many companies had to tighten their plans for overseas trips.
Although the trend shows more independent Chinese tourists visiting Thailand, the overall spending from this market could not significantly improve due to the economic challenges.
China has already signalled moves to elevate their economy through the use of fiscal tools and moderately loose monetary policies to respond to the return of President-elect Donald Trump next year, and the government has cut benchmark lending rates.
Mr Sisdivachr said that if Trump imposed tariff hikes on Chinese imports, this would impact consumers and the Chinese economy.
At the same time, if China is able to maintain sufficient economic growth via stimulus, continuing from an estimated 5% GDP growth this year, Thai tourism should be able to gain more positive momentum from the Chinese market as Thailand is already among the top outbound destinations among Chinese citizens, he said.
As 2025 will be the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Thailand and China, the government should use this opportunity to proactively penetrate this market, especially in new cities with significant numbers of prospective tourists.
The Thai government has not supported charter flights from these cities in China and had not been able to encourage people to visit second-tier cities in Thailand in the manner that the Thai government wanted them to do.
