Consumer spending during the Lunar New Year festival is projected to rise by 4.5% to a five-year high of 51.8 billion baht, helped by government stimulus measures, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).
Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the UTCC, said the survey showed most consumers believe this year's Chinese New Year spending will be more robust than last year.
He said this optimism is partly attributed to the government's stimulus measures introduced late last year, which have lifted consumer confidence.
However, consumers remain cautious about their spending and are concerned about the rising prices of essential goods and travel expenses.
Consumer spending during Chinese New Year is estimated to reach 51.8 billion baht, a 4.5% increase year-on-year. This is the first time spending has exceeded 50 billion baht since the pandemic.
Regarding the high level of PM2.5 dust in the country, Mr Thanavath said it is unlikely to significantly impact Thai tourism.
He said the Thai economy is in a recovery phase, with the UTCC forecasting a growth rate of 3% for this year.
Regarding the recent abduction of a Chinese actor, the impact on Chinese arrivals will last no longer than two months, said Mr Thanavath, returning to normal by March.
The UTCC's baseline estimate for Chinese New Year arrivals is a 0.4% decrease, equivalent to 34,027 visitors, resulting in an economic loss of 1.65 billion baht.
In the worst-case scenario, the decline could reach 3.7%, or 294,649 tourists, with a potential economic loss of 14.3 billion baht, according to the university.
The effect on GDP in the baseline scenario is estimated at -0.01%, with the worst-case scenario reaching -0.11%.
These impacts are attributed to 56.2% from a reduction in direct spending and 43.8% from indirect effects on the supply chain, said Mr Thanavath.
The sectors expected to suffer the most in the worst-case scenario comprise wholesale/retail (a loss of 5.53 billion baht), tourism-related services (a loss of 2.63 billion baht), restaurants/accommodation (a loss of 2.49 billion baht), and transport/communication (a loss of 1.28 billion baht).
