Tomorrow's critical talks between Myanmar's leader, Aung San Suu Kyi and representatives of the armed ethnic groups, who have yet to sign the national ceasefire agreement (NCA), could put paid to the planned "Panglong" peace summit at the end of August. Weeks of preparation have brought the peace process to the brink of a significant break-through.
The Union Peace Conference as it is now called -- previously dubbed the 21st Panglong, after the historic meeting between General Aung San and some ethnic leaders in 1947, which committed the country to a federal state -- has been on the cards since Aung San Suu Kyi overwhelmingly won the elections last November. Since coming to power in April, she has said national reconciliation and peace is the government's top priority.
Aung San Suu Kyi's peace negotiator, Dr Tin Myo Win has spent much of the last few months meeting ethnic leaders and trying to agree on an agenda for the planned talks. Substantial progress has been made, and a tentative structure and schedule for future dialogue has been agreed -- at least with the eight ethnic groups that signed the NCA last October, during President Thein Sein's time.
As a result a "framework for political dialogue" has been agreed after four days of discussion between the two sides in Nay Pyi Taw earlier this month. This originally came out of the talks with the previous government, and was written into the NCA; the revised framework will be the basis of the discussions at the 21st Panglong conference.
The problem is that only the ethnic groups, which signed the ceasefire agreement, have agreed to participate. The others are yet to commit themselves, which is why the meeting this weekend is so crucial. The ethnic leaders want to hear Aung San Suu Kyi's views on her vision for the 21st Panglong first-hand, and need to be convinced that she is not simply siding with the military. She and senior members of her National League for Democracy (NLD) have a series of secret meetings with members of the senior military brass on the peace process.
The ethnic leaders, including General N'Ban La of the powerful Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), will take some convincing. But there is unlikely to be an immediate response. The ethnic alliance -- the United Nationalities Federation Council (UNFC) -- is set to meet at Mai Jayang in KIO territory near the Chinese border in the last week of July to make its final decision. But their participation is essential for the whole process to proceed with a chance of success.
"Inclusion, not exclusion, will be absolutely vital," said Martin Smith, writer and renowned expert on Myanmar's ethnic struggles. "It is essential that these peace talks are inclusive, and that all sides work cooperatively together, rather than for self-advantage or self-interest."
The new government has inherited a complicated and delicate situation from the previous Thein Sein regime. Some ethnic groups signed the NCA while others refused to, not because they had a disagreement with the peace pact, but because the process was not inclusive. Since then there has been a divided approach to the ethnic armed groups -- institutionalised in the preparatory committee, with the two groups confined to two separate sub-committees. The talks on the agenda and political framework have been a largely parallel process as a result.
In the plans for the future of the peace process -- which are actually extremely detailed and well thought through -- the Union Peace and Dialogue conference will be the plenum meeting for the future peace process, and is expected to meet twice a year.
State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi will be the chairperson; three vice chairmen are Kyaw Tint Swe (state minister) Kwee Htoo (Karen National Union) and Tu Wei (Democratic Party); and three secretaries, Hla Maung Shwe (former Myanmar peace centre), Sai Kyaw Nyunt (Shan Nationalities League for Democracy) and Lian Sakhong (Chin National Front); with 15 members, five each representing the government, ethnic groups and the political parties.
There will be five working groups, responsible for on-going discussions after the 21st Panglong meeting, on the categories identified in the "framework for political dialogue": politics, security, social (resettlement), economy and land reform. Membership of these groups is also based on the principle of joint ownership between the government, ethnic organisations and the political parties that won seats in the elections (those that did not are relegated to parallel meetings, which would include civil society organisations). The conference will review, re-adopt and reaffirm this framework and recommit to the peace process and federalism.
The initial 21st Panglong will be open to all ethnic groups -- whether they have signed the NCA or not. "Non-signatures to the NCA can attend the Conference and participate in the process of reviewing the political framework," said a senior official involved in the preparation for the meeting, on condition of anonymity. "But they won't have equal rights as those who have signed. The hope is they will also sign the NCA soon."
This of course is in fact a very contentious condition -- as the question of "inclusivity" is at the centre of the rift between the government and the non-signatures. First its is unclear whether the these ethnic armed groups are prepared to sign the NCA, but what is certain is they will not unless the three smaller ethnic rebel armies -- the Arakan Army (AA), the Kokang or Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Palaung or Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) are allowed to participate.
A compromise is being worked out so that they can attend the peace summit. "The AA, MNDAA and TNLA can attend the first 21st Panglong Conference if they sign a statement promising to abide by the political process, stop fighting immediately and renounce armed struggle," said a senior government source. "But if they want to participate in the peace process after that they must first sign the NCA."
This would mean surrendering their arms before they sign the NCA: something, which would be totally unacceptable to them. So the participation of all the ethnic armed organisations remains delicately balanced. The hope is tomorrow's parley will resolve some of these obstacles so that the "Panglong" peace conference can go ahead with maximum ethnic participation.
Larry Jagan is a Myanmar specialist and former BBC World Service News Editor for the region.