Myanmar's civilian government is coming under increasing fire on all fronts. Or so it would seem. Pressure on Myanmar is mounting, especially from the UN and the US, as the government tries desperately to arrange for the return of nearly a million Muslim refugees -- who fled to Bangladesh to escape the violence in the strife-torn western region of Rakhine.
But in recent weeks renewed fighting in Kachin state has caused thousands of civilians to flee the violence, alongside skirmishes in Shan and Karen states, has added to the government's woes, increasingly imperilling the stalled peace process.
Larry Jagan is a Myanmar specialist and former BBC World Service news editor for the region.
To make matters worse, relations between the country's "dual leaders" -- the State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and the army commander-in-chief, Sen Gen Min Aung Hlaing are at an all-time low. And now to make matters even worse, the astrologers have joined in, predicting a power shift or change before the end of September.
These doomsayers say the thirty-year curse is about to befall the country again, pointing to the two previous cataclysmic years of 1958 -- when fighting in parliament forced the then prime minister U Nu to effectively hand over power to the army chief Gen Ne Win that continued until 1988 -- when mass pro-democracy protests led to a military coup and thousands of deaths. And now to 2018 when some earth-shattering event will transpire to topple the government.
But while these astrological predictions defy the current reality in Myanmar, the country has nevertheless reached a critical stage, and may have entered a dangerous and precarious period, with increased divisions, disappointments and frustrations that do not auger well for the future. And there are few signs that this situation is going to change soon.
The government's much vaunted peace process is crumbling -- strained by the military's intensified campaign against the Kachin -- but a reflection of the government's lack of vision and the ethnic groups' escalating disaffection. Most ethnic armed organisations -- both those who have signed the national ceasefire agreement and those who are yet to sign -- are seriously thinking about not attending the next Panglong "peace" conference -- tentatively scheduled to meet weeks from now, though it was postponed once already this year.
"How can we attend a peace conference while the Myanmar military are attacking us, and people are fleeing for their lives," said an ethnic Kachin leader, who declined to be identified.
This apparent hypocrisy has alarmed many ethnic leaders -- even those relatively unaffected by the current military campaign. And they have good cause to be concerned. Some 7,400 people have been internally displaced in Kachin state since early April, adding to the 100,000 already displaced there that have had no humanitarian assistance from the UN because the military refuse them access to this area.
More recently, in Shan State, some 20 civilians were reportedly killed and at least 20 others injured in attacks by armed groups, with the military mounting an offensive in response. Apparently three Chinese citizens were killed in the crossfire, prompting Beijing to call for an end to the fighting along their border.
The Chinese peace envoy, Sun Guoxiang -- who met with the umbrella group of ethnic armies in the Northern Alliance, accused of being involved in the recent skirmishes in Shan State in China last week -- is due in Naypyidaw this week to see what Beijing can do to assist in calming the crisis along the border. He is due to meet the State Counsellor and the Commander in Chief.
This fighting and the military's disregard for the civilian population has incensed civil society and community groups, spurning a new spate of peace protests, in the Kachin capital Myitkina and Yangon. The draconian response of the security forces, especially in Yangon, has only inflamed the protest movement. While significant numbers of civilians remain trapped in dire circumstances, these peace protests are unlikely to subside. Kachin activists, who have spearheaded the protests, predict that these marches are going to grow and develop into a nationwide peace movement.
The government has been slow to respond to these protests and, more importantly, the situation on the ground in the north. Public anger among the ethnic groups, particularly the Kachin, is only going to continue to simmer until the government tackles the humanitarian crisis left in the wake of the military's campaign and brings the army to heel. Though the ethnic communities understand the army is the key culprit, Suu Kyi's reputation is now seriously suffering in these ethnic areas.
"She is dead to us, completely dead to us," a leading Kachin activist told the Bangkok Post recently. And this does not augur well for the elections in 2020, where the ethnic vote could be crucial. There is no doubt that here the National League for Democracy will not retain the electoral support of the voters, who are turning to ethnic political parties instead.
Suu Kyi seems paralysed: besieged on all fronts and incapable of offering a vision for change, the political slogan that she put forward in 2015, which then captured the hearts and minds of the whole country. The government is like Don Quixote, the fictitious Spanish nobleman who famously does battle with a windmill, with token responses in all directions.
Defending the country against allegations of human rights abuses -- which are tantamount to ethnic cleansing and with the hallmarks of genocide, according to UN reports -- working on plans for the repatriation and resettlement of the Muslim refugees, and trying to kick-start the economy.
They are virtually doing this alone as the international community has turned its back on its once celebrated heroine. And while Myanmar is not friendless, especially in the region, where Asean, China, India and Russia support them, this may yet prove to be a poisoned chalice.
What is immediately needed is a comprehensive strategy and plan to deal with the most pressing crisis, at least as far as the international community is concerned, Rakhine. Concurrently a serious peace plan, for the whole country that the military actively supports, needs to be unveiled. Certainly, the government has a rudimentary blueprint for Rakhine -- based on the recommendations of the Annan commission -- in the Union Enterprise for humanitarian assistance, resettlement and development in Rakhine lacks vision and substance, according to Western diplomats.
But the recent appointment of the UN secretary general's special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, a seasoned Swiss diplomat, could provide an important focus for increased cooperation between the UN and Myanmar in resolving the problems Myanmar currently faces, and help deflect international criticism.
Last week she arrived in New York to take up her new appointment. She is facing a very tall order, according to diplomats, her mission at present includes Rakhine, the peace process, supporting the government in the run-up to the 2020 elections, and eliminating poverty and inequality.
She is expected to make her first official visit to Myanmar within the next few weeks.
Much now rests on her shoulders to coax the Myanmar government to be proactive and imaginary in their efforts to solve the various problems facing them.
The UN Security Council -- at the time of her appointment -- said they hoped she could help "resolve the crisis and create the conditions allowing for the safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation of refugees to their homes in Rakhine state".
Any substantial progress on this could help Myanmar and its beleaguered leader Suu Kyi to gain some much needed breathing space.