Temperatures may rise during red-hot October

Temperatures may rise during red-hot October

The Prayut Chan-o-cha regime could be staring at its own Kodak moment. So too the royal-nationalistic network behind it.

Why? It's clear the student-led rallies have no capacity to bring the government down.

The protest at the weekend may have been the largest we have seen in years.

It has stirred quite a lot of interest both here and overseas.

Its highlight, the installation of the reinvented 1932 Revolution plaque, was both daring and catchy.

The physical plaque may have been removed but the symbol, now available to be adapted for use online, has taken root in people's consciousness along with its subversive meaning.

But in practical terms, the peaceful rally does not qualify as a threat to the government at this point. Although the demands, whether for the constitution rewrite or reform of the monarchy, may have struck some chords, they remain far away from being realised, let alone trigger a popular movement to unseat PM Gen Prayut.

So what does the government have to fear?

It's not just that in the long term these protesters are mainly young and time is on their side but as more rallies are planned, the government could find itself in a tighter bind.

How to react to the protest is already a dilemma.

Some people may say the government's wisest course of action is to sit still as it appears unlikely the protest will cause it any harm.

Besides, the government has opted for a heavy-handed approach before. The police have brought serious charges such as sedition against activists and student leaders involved in earlier events.

The result? The anti-government rallies have grown from being thousands strong to the tens of thousands who filled up the vast ground of Sanam Luang at the weekend.

This expansion should be proof enough that the hard line did nothing to subdue the spirit of protesters.

If the government presses on with a charge-and-arrest approach, it's likely the next rally will swell even further.

But can the government afford not to react?

Probably not. If the government does not do anything, it not only risks coming under pressure from its own hawkish backers but it will also fear that its lack of action may encourage the protesters to push on.

So there is a wise thing to do and there is what the government is likely to do despite the risk.

As the rally-and-arrest game continues, it's inevitable the Prayut government will become more exposed.

It can't blame anyone else for its failure to move with the times and embrace modern, culturally diverse agendas.

How can it win over the public when the PM insists on keeping the ugly truth behind the Red Bull scion case under wraps?

How can it catch up with the protesters with its analogue mindset? Forcing Facebook to close down an allegedly anti-monarchy group only to see it spring back to the same size just a few days later? Removing the new pro-democracy plaque when it will show up on countless T-shirts, cookies, umbrellas and bags?

Just like Kodak, which held on to the film and chemical business even though consumers had moved on to more convenient digital cameras, the deeply conservative Prayut government can't shake off its traditional roots.

Governed by an elitist mindset, this administration has become too deeply embedded in traditionalist agendas that it forgot its reason for existence is the citizens. It loves the slow but steady bureaucratic system that has never served the public well. And it would rather buy submarines than invest in the public healthcare system.

If the government were a business, its model would have been disrupted a long time ago.

When it comes to the hot issues of law and justice, the existence of the Prayut government is a paradox in itself. It's a former military junta that forcefully bent electoral rules to whitewash itself into a "democratic" government. It has never been seen as playing fair politically.

The Palang Pracharath Party which is both the coalition leader and supporting base of Prime Minister Prayut is mired in vested interest and factional politics just like the "rotten water politicians" that the PM often blasted as the main cause of the country's ills.

What is probably most ironic of all is that some of the government ministers are former anti-government protesters themselves. And they did a lot more than just holding placards or marching peacefully.

There are possible protest dates coming up that are rich in history. October is just around the corner and it looks set to be a hot month.

Atiya Achakulwisut is a Bangkok Post columnist.

Atiya Achakulwisut

Columnist for the Bangkok Post

Atiya Achakulwisut is a columnist for the Bangkok Post.

Do you like the content of this article?
COMMENT (54)