The Election Commission has resolved unanimously by six votes to zero to reject three complaints challenging the qualifications of Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat to contest the May 14 general election as a party-list candidate on ground the complaints were not lodged within the legal time limit.
In other words, complaints that Pita owns 42,000 shares in the iTV media company were dropped for a technical reason.
However, the commission found that it was "evident" from factual details in the complaints that Mr Pita might be "knowingly aware" that he was unqualified to contest the poll and yet decided to go ahead with registering his candidacy in violation of the MP Election Act. As a result, the EC has decided to initiate its own probe into Mr Pita's qualifications.
Former election commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn believes Mr Pita is in more trouble now because the commission can proceed with a case directly to the police, public prosecutor and the Criminal Court without going through the Constitutional Court if the commission rules that Mr Pita was "knowingly aware" that he could not contest the election but did so anyway.
Mr Somchai says Mr Pita could face a jail term of one to 10 years and/or a fine from 20,000 baht to 200,000 baht and banished from politics for 20 years if convicted.
But there is a 50:50 chance that the Move Forward's prime ministerial candidate will escape the wrath of the law.
Under Section 151 of the act, the commission must give Mr Pita a chance to defend himself if it wants to handle the matter fairly.
There is factual evidence that the EC must look into too, which Mr Pita's lawyer is also certain to raise, concerning the status of the iTV media company.
iTV ceased operations as a media company after the PM's Office's Secretariat cancelled its contract on March 7, 2007. The broadcasting spectrum was withdrawn and given to the Public Relations Department and eventually awarded to Thai PBS, a public broadcasting entity. The Stock Exchange Company also delisted iTV shares on July 24, 2014.
Today, iTV still legally exists to engage in business to lease its TV equipment, and produce TV shows and marketing activities to maintain a legal status to engage in a legal dispute with the secretariat of PM's Office. It is no longer a media company that presents news reports or opinions that may influence the public.
Mr Pita was the executor of his late father's inheritance, including the 42,000 iTV shares, for about 17 years before the complaints were lodged with the EC. If he was "knowingly aware" that he was not qualified to contest the poll, he should have disposed of the shares as an average person with common sense would do. But he didn't. Why? Because he was honestly "unaware" that the shares could have this effect at the time of his candidacy registration. It is simple logic that is understandable.
The EC can look to a ruling of the Supreme Court in May about the case of Democrat candidate Charnchai Issarasenarak for the constituency election in Nakhon Nayok as a precedent. He owned only 200 shares in Advance Info Service (AIS) media company.
The Supreme Court ruled the 200 shares owned by Mr Charnchai are so insignificant that it does not give the candidate any influence or decision-making leverage in the company. It also rebuffed the EC for interpreting the letter of the law not in compliance with the "spirit" of the constitution and ordered the EC to reinstate Mr Charnchai as the lawful candidate.
The real stumbling block that is likely to negate Mr Pita's quest for the prime ministerial post is the senators, many of them active and retired military officers and civil servants who dread the Move Forward Party's "radical" policies, particularly amendments to the lese majeste law or Section 112 of the Criminal Code, dismantling the Internal Security Operations Command, pulling out troops from the Deep South and a complete overhaul of the military.
The eight coalition parties that have agreed to form the new government command 313 votes in the 500-member House of Representatives, considered a comfortable majority. But they need at least 63 votes from the senators to push for Mr Pita's quest for PM.
Most senators have kept their mouths shut as to whether they will vote for Mr Pita or not. The most likely scenario is that many will abstain instead of voting outright against him which may trigger public outrage.
If Mr Pita fails to get approval from the Senate, he can try again next time and again if the Senate keeps rejecting his PM's candidacy. There is no time limit for the new government to be set up in which case the incumbent caretaker government of PM Prayut Chan-o-cha will keep performing its duties.
But that will be bad for the country and its fragile economy. The political uncertainty cannot drag on for too long. At some point it must end, but just how remains to be seen.
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.