Judgement day for Pita Limjaroenrat's quest to become Thailand's 30th prime minister has been set for July 13, 19 and 20. The event is significant because, if Mr Pita is selected, Thailand may see unprecedented changes in the next four years if the campaign policies promised by the Move Forward Party are implemented, partially if not in their entirety.
Among the controversial policies which were barely touched upon by most parties are, among others, replacement of mandatory conscription with voluntary enlistment, dissolution of the Cold War-era Internal Security Operations Command, dissolution of the military court in peace time, downsizing the military, particularly the generals in the three armed forces and amendments to the lese majeste law.
Mr Pita appears to be in a jovial mood, smiling in public appearances, acting as if he is already the prime minister-to-be. In reality, the Move Forward Party itself is unsure whether it will get enough votes from the senators after the party approached several begging for their support, claiming the party has the mandate of the people, having won 14 million votes from the electorate.
The main stumbling block is the party's uncompromising stance towards changing Section 112 or the lese majeste law that many senators and some parties among the eight prospective coalition partners are against, including the Thai Sang Thai Party and some Pheu Thai MPs. Even exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the de facto leader of Pheu Thai, has made clear that he won't touch the monarchy, claiming his marriage to Khunying Potjamarn was royally sponsored.
Amending the lese majeste law is a policy being pushed by the Move Forward Party and as such is not included in the memorandum of understanding signed by the eight prospective coalition parties.
Backing down or softening this controversial issue may earn more support from the senators for Mr Pita's prime ministerial candidacy. But it may backfire on the party with its supporters. And the party may lose trust among hard-core anti-monarchists, among them the Ratsadon group and student activists.
It is believed that many of the 14 million voters who voted for the Move Forward Party did so not because they agree with all its campaign policies, or the lese majeste amendments in particular. It is believed most are fed up with the current administration, led by the three "Por" generals (Prayuth, Prawit and Anupong, aka Pok), and want to see changes for the better.
It is doubtful that many were aware of the essence of Move Forward Party's bill to amend the lese majeste law or Section 112 of the Criminal Code. If they had known the essence of the bill, they may have had second thoughts about supporting its amendments.
The bill seeks to do away with the special legal protection from defamation for the king, the queen, the heir or the regent bestowed by Section 112. They will be treated like ordinary people which means they can be criticised and their critics exempt from wrongdoing if criticism is made in good faith. The critics will also be exempt from punishment if the criticisms are proven to be true.
Moreover, the penalties will be massively reduced from 3-15 years in prison to just one year and/or a fine of not more than 300,000 baht if the defamation is made against the king. For the queen, the heir and the regent, the maximum prison term is six months and/or a fine of 200,000 baht. More importantly, people in general will have no right to file a lese majeste complaint against anyone with the police. Only the Bureau of the Royal Household can lodge such a complaint on behalf of the royal family.
Supporters may show up to give moral support to Mr Pita and pressure the senators not to abstain or vote against Mr Pita's candidacy. But their presence, which is not expected to be huge, is unlikely to change the mindset of most senators, many of them senior active and retired military officers and officials who have vowed allegiance to the three pillars of the country, namely the nation, religion and the monarchy.
It seems that only a miracle can help Mr Pita achieve his ambition. At 42, Mr Pita has a bright future and can wait. His time will come, if not this time then perhaps next. Meanwhile, Pheu Thai is waiting patiently on the sidelines for opportunity to arrive at its doorstep.
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.