After making more than 20 empty promises to return to Thailand, it seems this time fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is for real about his imminent homecoming.
Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn, announced that her father is due to arrive at Don Mueang airport on Aug 10.
She posted the messages on July 26, Thaksin's 74th birthday, while the fugitive ex-leader video-called his well-wishers who were holding a party for him from Hong Kong.
Thaksin told them his daughter would take care of the party, while Srettha Thavisin -- a Pheu Thai PM candidate -- would take the helm at Government House.
Thaksin fled the country in 2008 as the court handed him a two-year jail sentence for irregularities related to a land purchase deal.
Now the timing seems perfect for his planned return. Pheu Thai is forming a coalition government after botched efforts by the Move Forward Party (MFP). Political bigwigs from various parties gathered in Hong Kong to meet Thaksin and map out what was termed by the media as a "mega-deal" that would leave the MFP out in the cold. The government formation is expected to be completed by mid-August.
There are reports that Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the leader of the Progressive Movement, was also there in his bid to secure a place for the MFP in the Pheu Thai-led coalition. Mr Thanathorn was quoted as saying the MFP was ready to compromise on the draconian Section 112, or lese majeste law. Thaksin reportedly did not accept or reject his offer.
But it is understood that the coalition partners do not want the MFP on their team.
With his planned return, Thaksin has shown a certain level of confidence in the wake of assurances from the conservative bloc that he would be safe and any imprisonment would be brief. He would certainly petition for a royal pardon, which he has the right to.
Thaksin's planned return is seen as a compromise between Pheu Thai and the conservative bloc. It's obvious the old powers want to use Pheu Thai to isolate -- and decimate -- the MFP, which is the new "political ghost" for the conservative camp.
It should be noted that yellow-clad leaders have received Thaksin's return plan with unusual calm. It seems the yellow- and red-shirt factions have buried the hatchet as they share the same goal -- which is to boot the MFP out of the political arena.
As political development unfolds, Pheu Thai adjusts its stance, distancing itself from the MFP and the left as it veers towards more central ground, even becoming a New Right party. As time goes by, Thaksin has become a warrior protecting the revered institution, ensuring that Section 112 will not be touched.
Like it or not, Thaksin is now the real kingmaker. The voting for PM, which has been suspended pending a decision by the charter court on whether to accept a petition by the Ombudsman over the use of a parliamentary meeting regulation to block Pita Limjaroenrat's re-nomination, is to take place on Aug 4, as re-scheduled by House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha.
The rush derives from the fact that Mr Wan, also the parliament president, will be away for a regional parliamentary meeting in Indonesia from Aug 5-11 and parliament will have to wait until Aug 18 to vote on the selection of a new PM.
During the next parliamentary session, Mr Srettha and Ms Paetongtarn will be under the spotlight as two possible premiership candidates. As public anxiety is escalating over who will be the new PM and how the coalition will look, there are rumours about a plot that would see a new coalition partnership without the MFP.
Under this plot, Pheu Thai would propose its third candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, for the PM job, knowing he could not win enough support from the two Houses. After losing the vote, the party would then step aside, allowing Bhumjaithai, which has a clear anti-MFP stance, to take the role of coalition leader. But Bhumjaithai would then give Pheu Thai, as the biggest coalition party, another chance to nominate a PM candidate from among its ranks.
It is believed that Anutin Charnvirakul of Bhumjaithai and Gen Prawit Wongsuwon of the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) have now thrown their support behind Ms Paetongtarn, given her family lineage.
Mr Srettha also won the blessing of Thaksin's younger sister, Yingluck. Thaksin initially thought his daughter could wait, and Ms Paetongtarn should take the role of foreign minister first, a position that would enable her to gain experience as a future leader. In short, he would rather groom her for the next election so she could better cope with challenges from the MFP.
Paetongtarn's mother, Khunying Potjamarn, also wants her to wait. If Ms Paetongtarn is prime minister, while her father enjoys VIP treatment in jail, she may face legal complaints.
Yet Mr Srettha, a real-estate baron, lacks political charisma and may struggle with the political turmoil that lies ahead. Mr Anutin may not like him personally, as they exchanged many blows during the election campaign.
If Thaksin's youngest daughter gets nominated and wins widespread support, there are reports that she may get to meet a very important person today. If so, all the rumours about the mega-deal may prove true, and she can fulfil her political ambition. The stakes are high -- for her and Thaksin. A miscalculation would mean a high price to pay.