Three months after the election, attempts to form a government -- this time by Pheu Thai -- remain clouded with uncertainty as political situations can change quickly.
It's not certain if the parliament can go ahead with the PM vote scheduled for Aug 18-19. This is up to a decision by the Constitutional Court over the renomination of Move Forward Party's (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat. Should the court throw out the petition forwarded by the Ombudsman, the next vote may be possible.
Besides, Pheu Thai is struggling hard to get enough support for businessman-turned-politician Srettha Thavisin, its PM candidate, so that the coalition formation can kick off as it dumps the MFP.
Initially, Pheu Thai eyed partnerships with Bhumjaithai, the Democrats, Chartthaipattana and some other small parties, which saw the party accumulate 264 MPs. There was still a big void to fill, as 264 is just a little over half of the House of Representatives. This means the Pheu Thai-led coalition lacks stability.
Earlier last week, Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew expressed confidence that his party would get more support but stopped short of saying where from, and that triggered wild speculation. One possibility is that the Democrats could get an invitation. Yet the party is on the verge of breaking up as one camp under Chalermchai Sri-on and another under former PM Abhisit Vejjajiva are at loggerheads over whether the oldest party should join the Pheu Thai-led coalition. The latter is strongly against joining forces with Pheu Thai on the grounds that the party is and has always been its staunch enemy.
Besides, the votes Pheu Thai has gathered is far below the requirement set by the junta-sponsored charter. Roughly it needs 110 votes from the Senate, and that is possible only if it incorporates either the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) or United Thai Nation (UTN) into its coalition. There are reports that both parties are in the frame as the MFP, the election winner, threw cold water over its former ally's request for support in the PM vote.
There are also rumours that Pheu Thai may have to welcome groups of politicians, especially those under Palang Pracharath (PPRP) secretary-general Thamanat Prompow who has bargaining power with 16 MPs under his control and Suchart Chomklin of the UTN (nine MPs). However, Pheu Thai cannot hastily flirt with those groups for fear of losing public support, given strong anti-military sentiment.
Yet, teaming up with the UTN and PPRP seems inevitable. That means Pheu Thai would break its pre-election "no-junta" promise. In order to justify that, it is trying to create a new discourse arguing that Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha has decided to wash his hands of politics, while Gen Prawit Wongsuwon "is preparing" to pass on the baton to his younger brother Pol Gen Patcharawat, who was recently named PPRP chief adviser. This quick makeover has been designed to suggest there will be no influence from the two generals -- at least not physically.
Of course, Pheu Thai is well aware of the political cost of doing this.
Dr Cholnan is trying to play safe by citing the need for the country to break the deadlock.
"We are open to MPs from all parties and senators to vote for our PM candidate. It's necessary we tackle [this] constitutional crisis. We ask for support from all the parties, all the groups, so that they can take part in solving the country's crisis."
With limited options, Pheu Thai will have to be open to support from "cobras" -- a term for renegade politicians -- from both the PPRP and UTN, which are more than ready to join the bandwagon. All the groups would get cabinet positions in return.
It's said Pheu Thai is more comfortable with the UTN. Both parties, particularly Pheu Thai through Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck, have close connections with big bosses in the energy empire.
Pheu Thai has all the reasons not to allow the PM vote to drag on. It wants to have a hand in the appointment of senior officials in various ministries, including defence and interior, before the end of this month.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra's abrupt trip to Singapore to see her father, Thaksin, may be Pheu Thai playing its last remaining trump card.
When factoring in the two parties, Pheu Thai has more than 300 MPs and also is assured of Senate's approval for its PM candidate. Questions over Mr Srettha's tainted image regarding alleged tax evasion in a land sales deal, which was revealed by whistleblower Chuwit Kamolvisit, may no longer be an issue.
With such a scenario now seeming likely, the party may think it's worth all the risks. But is it?
Chairith Yonpiam is assistant news editor, Bangkok Post.