Political confrontation is inevitable and whether it will descend into violence or not depends on how far the Pheu Thai Party wants to go in rewriting the charter.
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra talks over Skype to about 50,000 red shirts who attended a rally and concert at the Bonanza Khao Yai Hotel in Nakhon Ratchasima. Thaksin urged them not to allow another coup and support amendments to the 2007 constitution.
If we still have any questions about the need to write a new constitution now, the answer can be found in a recent statement by deposed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
In his video-linked address to tens of thousands of red shirt followers who gathered at the Bonanza resort in Khao Yai on Feb 25, Thaksin said the existing constitution is undemocratic and unfair, resulting in chaos around the country and conflicts among the people.
''Today's constitution is undemocratic. It does not respect the rights and freedom of the people. (It) downgrades the power of the people. The person who is the prime minister and who came from the people throughout the country has to operate under the discretion of a handful of people who do not have to be responsible to the people,'' Thaksin said.
''Today, our mission is not over until we get back to democracy. Today, we have accomplished a part
[of the mission], that is we will elect the charter drafting assembly. Therefore, we must help watch out and bring in people who really have a heart for democracy to write a charter that is democratic.''
Thaksin thanked all 399 senators and MPs who voted in support of the three constitutional amendments drafts which seek to amend section 291 of the constitution to pave the way for the creation of the charter drafting assembly.
The man from Dubai fully realises that his opponents will protest against amending the charter or rewriting the whole charter, whether now or in the future. So why not do it now while the Pheu Thai-led government still has a numerical advange in both the House and the Senate and has not done anything terribly wrong which will undermine its popularity, although it performed badly in last year's flood crisis. It appears that Thaksin is willing to gamble now and face the consequences.
Protests against the charter rewriting bid began in earnest two days after the Bonanza meeting of the red-shirts. The Democrat party held a seminar with members of its southern branch offices in Hat Yai during which it was proposed that the party should launch a campaign to encourage members of the public to protest against charter changes. Even though the party's core members were not committed to the proposal, it was reported that the Democrats planned to distribute protest stickers throughout the country.
On Friday, the anti-Thaksin Siam Samakkhi alliance led by senator Somjate Boonthanom and Tul Sitthisomwong kicked off a campaign against the charter move and vowed to step up their protests if the charter changes are tailored to bring back Thaksin as a free man.
Only about 1,000 people showed up to join the protest at Lumpini Park. Many of them also signed up for an impeachment bid against cabinet members, senators and MPs who endorsed the three charter amendment drafts a week earlier.
Meanwhile, the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy has scheduled a meeting on Saturday to mull protests against the government. PAD spokesman Panthep Puapongpan said the meeting would decide how the group should move on this matter.
On Feb 22, PAD condemned the government's move as a ploy to ditch the charter in order to pave the way to free Thaksin from all wrongdoings and for Thaksin and Co to seize control of the country.
The group also started impeachment proceedings against those who voted in support of the three charter amendments bills a week earlier.
Rhetoric aside, it appears that the campaigns by both the PAD and the Siam Samakkhi alliance will attract little public response for the simple fact that the constitution issue is intangible and is not relevant to the livelihood of most members of the public, unlike such issues as the high cost of food and other daily necessities.
PAD itself is no longer the crowd puller it was some years back. The group has lost many of its faithful supporters for its decision to urge voters to cast a ''no vote'' for all parties, including the Democrats, in the last election and for the conspicuous silence of its leader, Sondhi Limthongkul, towards the Yingluck administration. PAD's image also took a huge blow recently when Sondhi was found guilty of fraud charges and sentenced to 20 years imprisonment by the Criminal Court. It is doubtful that the meeting this coming Saturday will draw much support from the public.
But political confrontation is inevitable and whether it will descend into violence or not depends on how far the government or the Pheu Thai Party wants to go in rewriting the charter.
If it leaves the chapter about the monarchy untouched and makes minor changes to the sections about the Constitution Court and Administrative Court and independent organisations like the National Anti-Corruption Commission, the Ombudsman and the Election Commission, there is a good chance the charter rewriting mission will be successful.
Of course there is another key factor which cannot be ruled out _ that is how effective the government will be in handling another flood this year, if there is one.
If the government does a good job, then it will be an indirect god-sent boon to the charter bid.
Veera Prateepchaikul is a former editor, Bangkok Post.