Euphoria subsides as new govt takes helm
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Euphoria subsides as new govt takes helm

Analysts believe that in order to proceed to democracy Mrs Suu Kyi must consult closely with military leaders including army chief Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing, right. (AP photo)
Analysts believe that in order to proceed to democracy Mrs Suu Kyi must consult closely with military leaders including army chief Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing, right. (AP photo)

Myanmar's new president Htin Kyaw has been sworn in this week, along with the new cabinet. It is indeed a historic moment, as the country's first democratic government since 1958 takes office tomorrow. But the euphoria that surrounded the National League for Democracy's overwhelming election victory last November is now slowly subsiding, as the enormity of the task facing the new government is rapidly being realised.

On one hand there is growing concern over the quality of the cabinet the NLD has selected to run the country, while on the other there are growing fears that the relationship between the new civilian government and military leaders are increasingly rocky. Now that the new government has taken the reins of power, there is growing anxiety about the country's political and administrative stability.

"There is dissension within the NLD, a cabinet chosen that lacks credibility, and a highly secretive decision-making process that reveals the true nature of this party's approach to power," said Nay Zin Latt, a former political adviser to President Thein Sein, and founder of the National Development Party -- that did not win any seats in the November elections.

"There is an acute lack of transparency and accountability, which makes it difficult for the new government to ensure stability" he told the Bangkok Post.

The challenges are massive, and the new government's lack of capacity increasingly being laid bare. The new cabinet -- sworn in yesterday -- and the process of selection has been less than inspiring. On the eve of announcing the ministers, the NLD's top leaders were still tinkering with the list of appointees, with several prospective ministers dropped the day before the NLD central executive committee approved it, according to party insiders. Several first-choice ministers declined the offer to serve in the cabinet. As a result, the ministers' list seems makeshift.

"It's been very messy, and doesn't inspire confidence," said a prominent businessman who supports the NLD but declined to be identified. "It's a team of nobodies, idea-less and docile," he added.

According to party insiders, their selection was part of a deliberate strategy. All the ministers are in their 60s and 70s --  many with government experience in the bureaucracy in the past. This means they will be cautious and careful in their policy approaches and changes. Stability appears to be the new NLD government's watchword for the moment.

There is a growing sense that these ministers in fact are temporary, as the new NLD government finds its feet and feels its way forward. Decisions on policy are likely to be taken within the party and not left to the ministers. Most of the current ministers are likely to only serve for some six to 12 months, according to party insiders. The fact that there seems to be a miss-match, with some ministers in charge of ministries that are not their traditional forte, seems to underline the likelihood that there will be a major cabinet shake-up within the next 12 months.

Eyes are already on Aung San Suu Kyi's role in the cabinet -- though no one is in any doubt that she will effectively be running the government. She is likely to relinquish the education, energy and electricity portfolios in the near future, according to a party spokesman and now chief minister of Mandalay, Dr Zaw Myint Muang. But clearly the Lady -- as she is often called, even within the NLD -- will in effect be running the cabinet and the government.

Naing Thet Lwin, 73-year-old minister of the newly formed portfolio of ethnic affairs and member of the ethnic party the Mon National Party, put it very clearly when asked what his main policy priorities were: "I will follow Daw Aung San Suu's instructions," he said. "The country's ethnic minorities all love and trust her."

But there is some disquiet among the party's younger MPs, that the cabinet is not representative of the party or society as a whole. Several women MPs voiced concern that the Lady was the only woman in this ageing, masculine cabinet. "We trust our leader and hope that there will be more women in the cabinet in future," said Susana Hla Hla Soe, a Karen woman NLD MP elected to parliament for the first time in November. "We also hoped that there would be a ministry for women and children created, but that is also likely to be a decision for the future."

According to NLD leaders, there will be no deputy ministers appointed -- unlike in the Thein Sein government when each ministry had at least two deputy ministers. "There will be some exceptions though, and a deputy minister may be appointed for the larger portfolios," said Dr Than Myint, the new commerce and trade minister told the Bangkok Post.

With an underperforming cabinet, the weight of government administration will fall squarely on the public service. They were all appointed a year ago, and were intended to be the bureaucrats that ensured continuity and stability in the face of political change.

"The permanent secretaries are going to have an important leadership role in the new government," said Dr Tin Maung Than, an independent Myanmar economist, who was also involved in training the permanent secretaries last year.

"While the transfer of power has been successful, the actual longer-term transition [to a more genuine democracy] is still being tentatively resolved," said Win Min, an independent Myanmar analyst. Civilian-military relations are going to overshadow everything in the coming months, he said. In the past few days it has become increasing clear that relations between the democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the army's commander-in-chief have reached a rocky low. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has made it clear he won't deal directly with the Lady, but will only communicate with the president.

This does not augur well for future relations between the new civilian government and the country's military. "She [Suu Kyi] needs to closely negotiate with the army chief on all important and sensitive issues including the peace process and all constitutional issues," said Win Min. "Their relation is the single most important element in ensuring a smooth transition."

So the new democratic government, which takes office tomorrow, has its work cut out for it. Already the party's top leaders and the newly appointed ministers have been working on their "first hundred days" programme for each ministry. This will lay public the government's reform plans for the next three months. The business community in Myanmar is hoping that it will restore some of the waning confidence that the new government can and will deliver on its optimistic election promises.


Larry Jagan is a specialist on Myanmar and a former BBC World Service News Editor for the region.

Larry Jagan

A specialist on Myanmar

Larry Jagan is a specialist on Myanmar and a former BBC World Service News editor for the region.

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