No sleep for Prayut?
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No sleep for Prayut?

Charter court ruling on army residence could provide PM with a convenient 'escape route' from political strife and mounting pressure - Former Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn's rebranded movement faces an uphill battle in local PAO polls

Prayut: Heat building in kitchen
Prayut: Heat building in kitchen

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha probably may not get much sleep on Tuesday night as he could find himself overwhelmed by the heavy suspense surrounding the Constitutional Court's ruling set to be handed down the following morning.

The court is due to pass what promises to be a show-stopping decision on whether Gen Prayut, the prime minister since the May 2014 coup, can hang on to the premiership.

Gen Prayut stands accused by the opposition of committing a conflict of interest by continuing to occupy an army residence, a privilege which his critics thought should have ended when his tenure as army chief did.

The opposition alleges that Gen Prayut, who is also the defence minister, should have packed up and left the residence when he retired as army chief on Sept 30, 2014. By staying on free of charge, Gen Prayut broke army regulations, thus undermining his legitimacy as prime minister, the opposition says.

The government, however, has leapt to Gen Prayut's defence to explain that the premier did not move out because the residence located on a Bangkok military base provided a secure environment for him.

Gen Prayut's supporters added his tenancy was a cost-saving measure because security protection could be obtained from the readily-available military personnel there.

However, the pros might fall short of the cons if Wednesday's ruling by the Constitutional Court finds Gen Prayut guilty.

A political source noted many people following developments in the case initially believed the trial appeared to go in Gen Prayut's favour.

However, that thought was entertained well before the mass protests engineered by the anti-government Free People movement came along.

The predominantly youth-led protests, although professing to be leaderless and comprising several sub-groups, have stuck to their principal demands for a brand-new charter to be written, reform of the monarchy and, of course, Gen Prayut's resignation.

Now, as the protests show no sign of relenting and the political cauldron surrounding his premiership starts to bubble, the court's ruling may come as a "convenient" escape from a very hot kitchen.

In fact, Jatuporn Prompan, chairman of the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), has said the ruling could ease Gen Prayut "gently" from power.

Hosting a live broadcast of the Peace Talk programme via Facebook, Mr Jatuporn said if Gen Prayut was ruled by the court to be ineligible for the tenancy, it could be a blessing in disguise as the prime minister could be excused from the current political predicament.

However, the political source said if Gen Prayut is shown the door this week, the entire cabinet would relinquish their posts as well.

A new prime minister would then be chosen under the current constitution -- a possibility dreaded by anti-government protesters since it means the current, coup-chosen senators would take part in selecting Gen Prayut's successor from among the individuals nominated by eligible political parties.

Mr Jatuporn was quick to speculate on Gen Prayut's possible replacement. The red-shirt chairman placed his bet on Deputy Prime Minister and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is also leader of the coalition Bhumjaithai Party and a prime ministerial candidate for taking over the premiership in the event Gen Prayut is judged guilty in the residence saga.

The source agreed Mr Anutin might make the cut as a "rebuilding" leader in times of political turbulence when peace, harmony and national reconciliation need to be forged.

However, his role may be limited to that of a transitional prime minister. If Gen Prayut is ejected from the corridors of power, he would leave a very destabilised political situation in his wake.

Mr Anutin's duty as prime minister might be to restore law and order pending the constitution drafting process which is likely to ignite yet more conflicts between the protesters and the pro-monarchy, yellow-shirt demonstrators.

The two groups are driven by very clear agendas that are worlds apart; the youth-led protest leaders have maintained they will not settle for anything less than their three demands while the yellow shirts have also been highly vocal in their demand for the pillar chapters 1 and 2 of the charter to be left untouched.

Both of these chapters deal mainly with general provisions and the King respectively.

Thanathorn: Faces new kettle of fish

Progressives brace for fight with past

It would take nothing short of a miracle for the Progressive Movement under the leadership of Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit to capture a seat in the Dec 20 Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) elections, according to political observers.

Known in Thai as Khana Kao Na, the Progressive Movement is contesting the PAO polls in 32 out of 76 provinces, and campaigning under the slogan, "Changing Thailand Starts At Home", which is catching on with supporters of the Move Forward Party, a reincarnation of the court-dissolved Future Forward Party which Mr Thanathorn led.

The movement -- which was the first political group to clearly target the local polls after the cabinet approved the holding of PAO elections -- is eyeing the provinces where many FFP candidates were either elected or secured second places in last year's general elections.

The movement hopes to ride on the FFP's electoral success in the PAO polls and pull off a stunning victory next month.

Mr Thanathorn, who co-founded the group after the FFP he led was disbanded by the Constitutional Court on Feb 21 this year for accepting a 191-million baht loan from him, has been on the campaign trail in many provinces in recent weeks.

It is believed that the movement is hoping to also cash in on the support of people who sympathise with the anti-government protests, which were partly triggered by the disbandment of the FFP, to make inroads into local politics.

In some provinces, the group will have to take on the old power cliques which dominate the political scenes by exposing flaws in their archaic management structures and proposing fresh and sometimes unconventional approaches to local development.

However, many political observers doubt the group has a shot at victory in the local polls where voters are known to be attached to the patronage system where the weaker are helped by, and therefore feel gratitude to, the stronger.

The group's election campaign, according to those same observers, which centres on offering mostly broad-ranging, macro policies, is unlikely to strike a chord with local voters who are more interested in issues that affect their daily lives.

National politics will have little to no influence on voter preferences. When they cast votes, local people tend to care more about how the PAO budget is spent to improve public services and bring development to their communities.

Among those who agree with this observation is Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political scientist at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida). In his view, the odds are not in the Progressive Movement's favour.

"I think Khun Thanathorn faces an uphill task fighting the old powers in the local elections.

"The group may gain support from residents in urban communities, but that won't outweigh the vote from people in rural areas," said the academic.

He went on to say that the Progressive Movement should be content even with just two seats in these tough elections.

In the PAO polls, a candidate will need at least 500,000 votes on average to win membership of the organisations.

However, no Progressive Movement candidate is predicted to capture more than 100,000 votes, he pointed out.

A source from a coalition party has predicted that Mr Thanathorn's group will not win a single seat next month.

"Many of their candidates will likely finish in fourth place. What matters aren't the qualifications of the candidates. It is about the deep-rooted patronage system," said the source.

In the Dec 20 elections, there are 76 PAO chairman posts and about 1,900 PAO seats up for grabs.

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