Battle over but war still on
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Battle over but war still on

Despite PM's court win, he still faces the twin threats of protests intensifying and a feared Covid-19 second wave - Pheu Thai sources admit departure of key members was down to internal conflicts and not a cunning plan to win next poll

Prayut: Still under threat
Prayut: Still under threat

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha may still be counting his blessings after the Constitutional Court last week ruled in his favour over his tenancy in an army house.

However, the battle may have been won but the war is far from over with anti-government protesters remaining active and a feared second wave of Covid-19 threatening to drive a final nail in the coffin of the country's ailing economy.

Some political experts painted a grim forecast of the political climate after the landmark ruling on Gen Prayut's army residence. They were concerned the ongoing political unrest would likely descend into chaos whichever way the ruling went.

If Gen Prayut had been found guilty, he would have been sent packing and had to relinquish his premiership. In which case, the cabinet would have been dissolved and a new prime minister elected in parliament via the same rule under the current charter that many view as problematic.

That would have also opened up the possibility of political parties represented in parliament switching sides and crossing the floor in the process of forming a new government.

The realignment and the jockeying by parties for a chance to be included in the coalition line-up would have caused a great deal of uncertainty at a time when the country is in desperate need of harmony to avert economic disaster from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, that scenario never happened as Gen Prayut was cleared by the Constitutional Court of wrongful occupation of the army house.

His being let off the hook was expected to intensify anti-government protests spearheaded by the Ratsadon group. Its members protested hours after the court handed down its judgement and criticised the ruling.

No violence ensued and the protest, as has been customary, ended in the late evening.

Observers harboured fears the ruling might incense protesters or at least draw larger-than-usual crowds, which would have been hard for the police to control and maintain peace and order.

The Dec 2 protest was the last large gathering before Thursday's rally. However, last Friday, the Free Youth movement, an affiliate of the Ratsadon group posted a message on the topic of "a republic" on its Facebook page.

The group also trumpeted its "Restart Thailand" campaign which appears to have taken on socialist overtones, and posted a red logo on its Facebook page which observers say looks like a "hammer and sickle".

In the post, the group said that: "This is a new movement where nothing will be the same."

The "republic" rhetoric instantly met with a response from Gen Prayut. He insisted Thailand would never be a republic. "That's impossible," the prime minister said.

The anti-government protest organisers, according to observers, may be looking to expand their rallies and increase participants by appealing to a wider demographic, beyond the students who are the mainstay of the protests.

The observers noted that any mass protest needs to be big enough to have an impact on the powers-that-be.

Experts have warned protest organisers not to go to extremes in trying to promote their aims as they risk being accused of attempting to overthrow the country's system of government which would incur severe legal punishment.

It might also backfire by giving the authorities justification to break their movement up.

Such a charge might help drive away some of the supporters who hold the view that the hammer and sickle is symbolic of something that runs counter to democracy, a cherished value which guides and sustains the protest movement. The next major anti-government rally looks set for early next year.

In the meantime, the government is confronted with the prospect of a renewed Covid-19 assault on the economy.

It all started on Nov 26 when a 29-year-old Thai woman who had been working in Myanmar illegally re-entered the country in Mae Sai district of Chiang Rai through a natural border channel.

After a shopping spree and a visit to a bar and a cinema in the province, she later tested positive for Covid-19. It was reported several days later that 17 infections stemmed from her -- three in Chiang Mai, nine in Chiang Rai and one each in Phayao, Phichit, Ratchaburi, Sing Buri and Bangkok. Transmissions have since multiplied.

Gen Prayut gave assurances that the Covid-19 situation in Thailand remained under control despite some infected Thais sneaking back across the border from Myanmar.

The premier declared that it was not a second wave of infections as the individuals were not superspreaders.

Despite this reassurance, growing concerns of a return to a lockdown have unnerved many in a tourism industry already bruised and battered by the virus.

A resurgence in local Covid-19 cases has led to fears domestic tourism will suffer a hit with Thai tourists expected to take fewer trips during upcoming holidays than during holidays last month, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

Fissures widen in opposition

When a group of veteran politicians in the main opposition Pheu Thai Party led by Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan quit their posts in late September, several political observers believed it was only a matter of time before they would completely sever their ties with the party.

Their decision to leave the party for good came at the end of last month, leading many people to wonder what was going on in the main opposition party that also recently underwent a major shakeup.

There appeared to be two theories as to why they quit, according to political observers.

Sudarat: Focus of speculation

One line of thinking is that the group's eventual farewell had something to do with long-standing internal conflicts and infighting among opposing factions in the party.

Over the years there were reports about some members being unhappy with Khunying Sudarat and things must have now reached breaking point.

Khunying Sudarat had served as Pheu Thai's chief strategist, a post equivalent in stature and power to the party leader. She left the post in the recent restructuring of the party.

In January this year Khunying Sudarat admitted it was "hard handling people who don't like her in the party" and that she "might throw in the towel one of these days" after false reports emerged that she had resigned from her role.

In October when a new executive board was elected, a move seen as an attempt to revamp the party, Khunying Sudarat and many in her inner circle were sidelined. Suspicions about her future with the party grew.

The other theory, however, entertained the idea that Khunying Sudarat's exit was to prepare her, as well as others who left Pheu Thai with her, for the next election.

It was a long shot to many, but some analysts could not help linking her departure to those of key figures led by Chaturon Chaisang who defected to the now-dissolved Thai Raksa Chart Party ahead of the 2019 general election.

The short-lived TRC was an alleged offshoot of Pheu Thai that was formed to tiptoe around the complicated rules on distribution of party-list seats.

However, Watana Muangsook, one of the Pheu Thai bigwigs who quit the party along with Khunying Sudarat, dismissed this theory.

He admitted the resignations were triggered by differences in ideologies and approaches and insisted their exit had nothing to do with next polls.

It was also rumoured Khunying Sudarat and her allies were looking to register a new party which would act as a subsidiary of Pheu Thai.

According to Mr Watana, with the charter amendment process under way and the controversial election rules likely to be rewritten, there was no reason for him or the group to break away and set up a new party to serve as a Pheu Thais political ally.

A source in Pheu Thai also confirmed internal conflicts were the main reason behind the group's departure and admitted the rift might well widen and affect the party's standing in the next elections.

According to the source, several party figures including Khunying Sudarat's group disagreed with the mobilisation of red shirts to join the student-led, anti-government protests and they did not believe the protesters would achieve anything.

It was more than just a squabble: it indicated a broader issue -- a rethink of the direction of the party known to be under the influence of fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

It is widely speculated that Pheu Thai MPs for Bangkok and those in the Central Plains provinces who feel uncomfortable with the direction the party is going in are likely to join a party Khunying Sudarat might establish if and when fresh elections are called.

According to the source, anxiety is running high in Pheu Thai and many are concerned that the party, whose appeal is dwindling, is no longer a force to be reckoned with.

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