Promises and perils of handout
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Promises and perils of handout

ABOUT POLITICS: Critics of Pheu Thai's digital wallet scheme warn of the legal pitfalls and financial burdens in the pursuit of economic growth v Ministerial reshuffle sparks controversy, with political analysts questioning the suitability of new appointees

Korn: Word of warning
Korn: Word of warning

Much anticipated as it is controversial, the digital wallet scheme has seen its veil of uncertainty finally lifted.

However, at a whopping half a trillion baht, a project of such magnitude cannot be expected to proceed without some ferocious criticism tied to a warning of legal consequences for the entire cabinet.

Critics have been hounding the government with warnings of a dire legal backlash, specifically targeting the ruling Pheu Thai Party, the architect of what many slammed as coffers-draining populist galore the country can ill afford.

For months, the government fumbled to find the money to finance the grand handout scheme, which it claims will set in motion a so-called economic "tsunami" essential for jolting the economy back into life.

The megaproject works its magic by spurring intense spending by the public and whipping up growth beyond the critics' imagination.

Pheu Thai is fighting off torrents of accusations that it is not immune to splurging at the country's expense. The coup-toppled Yingluck Shinawatra administration, run by Pheu Thai, is languishing to extricate itself from the legal consequences and ethical indignation it faces as a result of the collapse of the rice-pledging programme, which has incurred hundreds of billions of baht in losses as a result of its failure.

The policy was supposed to present farmers with the opportunity to pledge and afterwards provide an unlimited supply of their rice to the government at a higher price than they would fetch by selling them at market rates. The ultimate aim of the scheme was to hike rice prices to protect farmers from greedy middlemen.

However, the rice-pledging programme met with a tragic end in August 2017 when the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions found 15 people guilty of involvement in bogus government-to-government (G2G) rice deals.

Coincidentally or not, the very same lender that had materialised the rice pledging policy is now being roped in again to help financially transform the digital wallet scheme into reality amid the chorus of apprehension and disapproval.

If the government doesn't change its mind, the state-owned Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) will find itself a creditor of a 172.3-billion-baht loan to partially finance the digital wallet handout scheme.

The rest of the wallet budget will be covered by two tranches: 152.7 billion baht from the budget for the 2025 fiscal year and 175 billion baht from the reallocation of the budget for the current fiscal year.

Words of caution on the legality associated with how and from where the scheme's funds will be sourced have reverberated from the Bank of Thailand to the parliament and across social media platforms.

One caution was voiced via Facebook by someone who had macro-managed the country's fiscal and financial affairs from the end of 2008 through to the latter half of 2011.

Former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij wrote on Facebook recently to offer his two cents and suggested the government may be treading on dangerous waters getting the BAAC on board as a wallet scheme lender.

He started his post with an opening that recapped the disparagements traded by the opposition Democrat Party and Pheu Thai over the wallet tussle. While the Democrats took a swipe at the ruling party for planning a repeat of the enslaving debt monstrosity similar to that created by the rice-pledging programme, Pheu Thai returned the salvo and asked if the enormous loan obtained from the BAAC to finance the rice price guarantee implemented by the Democrats-led government in the past has been paid off in totality.

Mr Korn explained that the swipes were understandable, as both the rice-pledging and rice-price guarantee projects had objectives that were compliant with the BAAC law.

He insisted both policies satisfied a fundamental criterion in the BAAC law, which stipulates that the bank must issue loans to farmers with the purpose of financially assisting them in conducting their agricultural profession.

"Nowhere in the law, however, is there a clause or stipulation that allows the BAAC to lend to the government so that it can spend the money as handouts (even though wallet recipients include farmers)," he said.

The digital wallet policy has been explicitly declared as a vehicle for economic stimulus and driving up domestic consumption. "Which is utterly irrelevant to the cause of farming promotion," Mr Korn said.

The former finance minister added that the introduction in 2018 of the Fiscal Discipline Act has provided an iron-clad protection against a misspending of state enterprise fund by the government. An offence pertains to spending that fails to meet the underlying objective of founding the respective state enterprise.

"I've gone back and read the BAAC law again and come to the conclusion that the (planned digital wallet loan) requires a thorough vetting, which is consistent with the Bank of Thailand's caution," he said.

Mr Korn advises the government to drop the planned BAAC loan and focus instead on saving enough budget within the next fiscal year to finance the scheme. If the fund still falls short, the government might consider splitting the handouts into two phases and implementing the latter phase in the 2026 fiscal year.

New cabinet faces backlash

Political analysts have criticised the new cabinet line-up, believing that some of them are not a good fit for their roles or are complete misfits.

The reshuffle, which came about seven months after the Srettha government took power and largely affected the ruling Pheu Thai Party, witnessed the departure of four ministers, two of whom are Pheu Thai heavyweights.

Pheu Thai stalwart Somsak Thepsutin has replaced former Pheu Thai leader Dr Cholnan Srikaew as public health minister, and Pheu Thai deputy leader Jiraporn Sindhuprai has filled in as PM's Office Minister following Puangpet Chunlaiad's exit.

It saw the switching of roles between Sermsak Pongpanich and Sudawan Wangsuphakijkosol, both from the Pheu Thai Party. Mr Sermsak now serves as the tourism and sports minister, and Ms Sudawan takes his place as culture minister.

Political pundits say these changes lack clear explanations or justification, especially regarding the replacement of Dr Cholnan by Mr Somsak and the appointment of Mr Sermsak, who is not recognised for having experience in the tourism industry, to take charge of one of the country's biggest foreign exchange earners, also highlighted by the government as a main economic engine.

While the rejig introduced fresh faces, with former energy executive Pichai Chunhavajira and Paopoom Rojanasakul warmly welcomed into the fold as finance minister and deputy finance minister, respectively, the inclusion of Pichit Chuenban as the PM's Office Minister, sparked controversy.

Mr Pichit, an adviser to the prime minister and former lawyer of Thaksin Shinawatra, is deemed unfit to be appointed to the cabinet under Section 160 of the constitution, which governs the moral and ethical standards of a cabinet minister.

The Supreme Court sentenced him to six months in prison for contempt of court in 2008 for offering a sealed box containing about 2 million baht in cash to a senior administrative officer of the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions.

This was not to mention that Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara has quit, with immediate effect, in protest after he lost the deputy premier post, which he held concurrently with the foreign affairs minister portfolio, in the reshuffle.

Although several political pundits seem to agree that the cabinet reshuffle is influenced by Thaksin Shinawatra, the alleged de facto leader of the Pheu Thai Party, Stithorn Thananithichot, an analyst from King Prajadhipok's Institute, challenges the assessment.

Srettha: Signs of growing clout

He considers the reshuffle a sign of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin's growing clout, pointing out that the new finance minister and his deputy, Mr Paopoom, who is known as the architect behind the flagship 10,000-baht digital wallet policy, are both close to Mr Srettha.

He said PM's Office Minister Chakkraphong Saengmanee, who was shifted from the deputy minister of foreign affairs to PM's office minister to oversee the National Economic and Social Development Council, is also among the prime minister's inner circles.

These three ministers are expected to help Mr Srettha shape and steer economic policies and achieve tangible results. However, giving Mr Somsak and Transport Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit a concurrent post of deputy prime minister is viewed as a power-sharing gesture rather than serving the public interest.

According to the analyst, if the reshuffle was a strategic bargaining chip among factions within the Pheu Thai Party, it reflects the prime minister's growing influence.

"The prime minister was thought to have no support base in the ruling party when he first took the highest seat in the cabinet. But as the 'formal' head of the government, he has the bona fide negotiating power," he said.

Mr Stithorn said Mr Srettha could emerge as the leader of a faction representing fugitive former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, and it is possibly the largest faction in the ruling party.

Yingluck, Thaksin's younger sister, rose to the prime ministership in 2011 on Thaksin's popularity. She fled overseas in 2017, shortly before a court sentenced her to five years in jail for negligence in the government rice subsidy scheme.

Mr Stithorn said Mr Srettha has come this far in his political career because he recognises his strength as the only candidate from the Pheu Thai Party that the conservative camp has approved.

Two other prime ministerial candidates on Pheu Thai's tickets -- Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Chaikasem Nitisiri -- do not stand a chance to be elected premier, and this gives Mr Srettha the edge in negotiating with Thaksin and his ex-wife Khunying Potjaman na Pombejra, known to have exerted dominance in the ruling party, said the analyst.

However, although Mr Srettha has gained significant power in the ruling party, it does not follow that he will be able to harness it and implement policies and achieve goals quickly, Mr Stithorn said.

"He apparently has nothing to show for the past seven months as prime minister, so he has a long way to go to prove his worth," he said.

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