What will Pheu Thai Party do next?

After two months of waiting in the wings, the Pheu Thai Party (PT) is now having a go at forming a coalition government.

The party, however, faces the same obstacle as the Move Forward Party (MFP) over how to secure enough votes for its prime ministerial candidate in the joint parliamentary session on Thursday.

MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat, the MFP's sole candidate, has been blocked twice from being selected due to the party's flagship policy to revise Section 112 of the Criminal Code, known as the lese majeste law.

The military-appointed Senate and parties opposing Mr Pita have sent a loud and clear message that they will not endorse any Pheu Thai candidate if the MFP remains in the coalition.

At this point, Pheu Thai is sticking with the eight-party alliance, so it has to figure out a way to persuade the senators and those outside the bloc to change their stance.

Political analysts believe that Pheu Thai, which has three prime minister candidates to choose from, has a few cards up its sleeve to help it secure majority support in parliament.

Nevertheless, the party has remained coy about who among the three -- Srettha Thavisin, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, and Chaikasem Nitisiri -- it will nominate on Wednesday.

Srettha is most likely

Deputy Pheu Thai leader and list-MP Sutin Klungsang said Mr Srettha is deemed the perfect fit for the current political situation and is likely to get the nod, as suggested by Ms Paetongtarn.

Early last week, the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the head of the Pheu Thai family said the party would go with the property tycoon if Mr Pita was rejected a second time.

Mr Sutin said the main hurdle keeping Mr Srettha from getting the required vote is the condition that the MFP must not be in the coalition. The party and its seven prospective partners has hard work ahead in the coming days.

"The eight parties are still on the same team, so they must thrash out solutions together," he said.

A source in Pheu Thai said there are not so many options if the eight-party bloc still fails to secure the required vote after Pheu Thai takes the lead in forming the coalition and nominates its own candidate.

"Either the bloc ends up in the opposition camp or some parties have to go. If we have to part ways, we have to -- otherwise we'll lose it all. It's better than getting nothing," said the source.

But the party is likely to negotiate with the senators to see if they can relax their conditions and ask the MFP if it can back down from its policy to amend the lese majeste law, said the source.

If the senators and the MFP cannot meet each other half way, the bloc will have to decide, the source said, adding that no matter what the decision is, Pheu Thai will make sure Mr Srettha is elected in the July 27 vote.

"It must be done at the first attempt. No matter what the coalition looks like, it must not drag on," the source said.

Seeking support

Without the MFP, which has 151 seats, Pheu Thai will try to put together a 280-seat coalition and it has had a positive response from the Chartthaipattana and Democrat parties which have 35 seats combined, according to the source.

Rumours have spread that more than half of the Democrat MPs are in talks to join a Pheu Thai coalition, but these were denied by spokesman Ramet Rattanachaweng.

The Democrat Party has yet to select a new executive committee and a new leader to succeed Jurin Laksanawisit, who stepped down after a disastrous showing at the polls.

The United Thai Nation Party (UTN) and the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), with 76 seats, are waiting to see the lie of the land and they may request the interior or defence portfolios. Bhumjaithai, the third largest party with 71 seats, is also likely to be brought in, according to the source.

According to the source, while Pheu Thai wants the prime minister vote to be concluded this Thursday, it may nominate Mr Chaikasem to test the waters if it is not sure about its chances.

The Pheu Thai source said Pheu Thai is aware of the huge risks it faces if the party chooses to abandon the MFP.

The party will be seen as betraying its ally and will face a public backlash and tight scrutiny from the MFP which would be pushed into opposition. But the party can turn things around if it gets things done right after grabbing power.

"Not only does the party have to make good on its promises, its MPs have to communicate with voters and strengthen their support bases. This may help voters forgive and forget," said the source.

Following Mr Pita's renomination, the Pheu Thai candidates will likely get just one shot each.

Toughest time for Pheu Thai

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, said Pheu Thai has a few moves to play and it may go with Mr Chaikasem in the next round of voting if the current bloc remains intact.

The party's possible narrative to back Mr Chaikasem's nomination is that he is a legal expert and should take charge of the home-coming arrangements for Thaksin who faces the spectre of legal action.

The deposed prime minister plans to return to Thailand before July 26, his 74th birthday, to care for his grandchildren, but his plan is likely to be delayed to avoid any political turbulence.

"Mr Chaikasem is not a real candidate and he is the choice in case the MFP is still in the bloc. But this move is risky because parliament may endorse him. Pheu Thai has to make sure the other parties and senators understand that the move is designed to push the MFP away," he said.

Mr Srettha will be nominated once the MFP is out of the picture and the Pheu Thai-led coalition will include Bhumjaithai and the PPRP to compensate for the MFP's exit, he said.

In this scenario, PPRP leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon is unlikely to be part of the cabinet and Pheu Thai will try to get the economic positions, including the energy post to boost the government image and public confidence and deflect pressure, according to Mr Stithorn.

However, he believes Pheu Thai will not severe ties with the MFP so as to maintain leverage over Bhumjaithai and the PPRP, and will offer the MFP a chance to play hero.

"Even if it doesn't join the coalition, the MFP may still vote for the Pheu Thai candidate to block Gen Prawit's chances. This would give MFP something to show their supporters," he said.

Perhaps… Paetongtarn

Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Institute of Politics and Policy Analysis, has a different theory about who the real candidate is and believes Mr Chaikasem will never be nominated, with Mr Srettha used as a tool to pressure the MFP to withdraw from the coalition.

After Mr Srettha is rejected, Pheu Thai will have to bring in other parties, which will make the MFP reconsider its position, he said, noting the MFP once suggested the 312 seats are enough to create a "parliamentary dictatorship".

When this happens, Ms Paetongtarn, who is the party's genuine prime minister candidate, will be nominated, said Mr Thanaporn.

It remains to be seen which parties between Bhumjathai and UTN will be courted to join the Pheu Thai-led coalition, according to Mr Thanaporn.

He said Thaksin, who is widely seen as the de-facto leader of Pheu Thai, has a history with Newin Chidchob, Bhumjaithai's patriarch who deserted him, while core figures of the UTN are known to have campaigned for Thaksin's ouster.

According to the analyst, Thaksin is likely to settle for the one he holds the least grudges with.