Commerce Minister Phumtham Wechayachai is concerned the drought's impact could last for three years because of the El Niño weather phenomenon.
A prolonged impact could decrease rice production and lead to a shortage for domestic consumption, he said.
Mr Phumtham on Wednesday instructed the Internal Trade Department and Foreign Trade Department to work together to monitor and mitigate the effects of the drought and El Niño if it persists for up to three years, saying this could have an impact on the cultivation of important agricultural products such as rice, cassava, maize and oil palm, leading to potential supply reduction due to the global drought which is affecting many countries.
While several countries are interested in purchasing these products from Thailand and the country has adequate supply for domestic consumption, excessively expedited exports might result in domestic shortages. It is crucial to manage domestic stock adequately and balance export activities to avoid affecting domestic product prices, he said.
Mr Phumtham also insisted the Commerce Ministry is not implementing export bans or restrictions on agricultural products despite increasing demand for rice and agricultural products from various countries concerned about the severe consequences of the El Niño weather phenomenon.
He said the prices of most agricultural products may fluctuate rapidly so the focus should not solely be on prices but also on ensuring sufficient domestic supply of agricultural products.
He said rice exporters should cooperate to monitor the quantity of rice in the country, rather than hoping solely for higher rice prices. This concern should be communicated to relevant agencies and associations, said Mr Phumtham.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said this year's rice production is estimated to be less affected by El Niño and is expected to be better than the previous year, thanks to continuous rainfall.
As for the next year, he cited a report by the US Department of Agriculture that predicted global rice production will increase from 518 million tonnes to 523 million tonnes, with production in India and China remaining stable.
Pakistan is expected to increase its production, while Thailand and Vietnam are expected to maintain their current production levels. Thailand's production is estimated at 20 million tonnes of milled rice, which should prevent any rice shortages unless there is a severe drought next year. Some predictions indicate that El Niño will persist for two more years, but this year's impact has been relatively mild and some expect a milder impact next year.
According to Mr Chookiat, rice exporters estimate that Thailand may ship 8-8.2 million tonnes of rice this year. In 2024, the estimated rice exports may be 7-7.5 million tonnes, and it is expected that competition in the global rice market will be intense.
