Aviation bodies project Thailand's passenger numbers to recover by next year, though economic uncertainties and the slow rebound of some supply chains still hamper the industry.
Yongyut Lujintanon, area manager for Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said there are several factors to consider, even as the Tourism Authority of Thailand targets almost 40 million arrivals this year.
The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) confirmed it received more slot requests.
Mr Yongyut said those factors include war and geopolitical tensions, as well as the rise of expenses, especially fuel costs that surged by 3-5 times from the pre-pandemic level.
Other supply chain issues, such as fleet resumption and outdated infrastructure, along with a lack of spare parts and staff in the aviation sector also play a crucial role.
In 2023, Thailand was fourth in terms of traffic recovery in Southeast Asia, following the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam.
Vietnam was the only country last year to post traffic exceeding the 2019 level.
As of January 2024, revenue passenger kilometres for Asia-Pacific recovered to 93% of the level in 2019, still below the global average, which recorded a full recovery to 2019 levels.
International passengers should match the 2019 level next year as some markets, such as China, opened borders slower than others, according to IATA.
Sarun Benjanirat, deputy director-general of CAAT, said it forecast a full recovery in Thailand with 165 million passengers by end of this year at the earliest, while the base-case forecast should be within 2025, similar to IATA's prediction.
Mr Sarun said a fast recovery would depend on how airlines ramp up their fleets, as the number of aircraft is only 80% of the pre-Covid level.
Additional seat capacity will help lower airfares and drive more travel demand.
Another critical factor is the resumption of major markets like China, which is now only 60-70% of the 2019 level.
The Chinese market accounted for more than 25% of total international passengers in 2019.
In 2023, Thailand recorded 121 million passengers, or 74% of the 2019 level, in which 60 million took international flights and 61 million domestic flights.
Airlines with the most international flights were Thai Airways, serving 15.1% of total passengers, followed by Thai AirAsia with 10.8% and Emirates at 3.6%.
Thai AirAsia also dominated the domestic market with a 36.9% share last year, followed by Nok Air at 14.6% and Thai Vietjet at 14.2%.
In 2019, Thailand served over 88 million international passengers and 76 million passengers on domestic flights.
After more than 20 airline representatives inspected provincial airports under the "Air-mazing Thailand" project earlier this month, Mr Sarun said some international carriers requested slots in airports in Udon Thani and Surat Thani.
For airlines, Surat Thani is capable of accommodating large aircraft and can substitute Samui Airport.