The government is advised to halt implementing big-ticket stimulus measures as the economy is on track for continued recovery, according to the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI).
Nonarit Bisonyabut, a research fellow at the TDRI, said the private sector is in a state akin to being addicted to steroids, requiring constant government stimulus measures. This weakens the private sector's competitiveness, he said.
Mr Nonarit said the government should end new stimulus measures as economic growth is at 2.6-2.8%, which is close to its potential of 3%.
This means there is little need for stimulus, he said, or it should be limited to small-scale projects costing 10-20 billion baht, similar in size to the Khon La Khrueng (half-half) co-payment subsidy scheme or the "We Travel Together" campaign.
Large-scale projects such as the 10,000-baht cash handout are excessive, said Mr Nonarit.
He said his research found many stimulus projects, such as year-end shopping programmes allowing tax deductions, are highly inefficient -- even less effective than cash handouts. Such schemes are a waste of resources, said Mr Nonarit.
"I believe the business sector needs to strive for its own survival. If enterprises depend primarily on handouts, it won't benefit the country or the government's fiscal status," he said.
Regarding this year's economy, Mr Nonarit described it as a gradual recovery.
Before the pandemic in 2020, Thailand's economic potential was 3.6%.
However, after 2021 analysts from various institutions downgraded Thailand's potential economic growth to 3% a year based on factors like the US-China trade war and an ageing society, which slowed global trade and affected the global and Thai economies.
He said the forecast for economic growth this year, which is estimated at 2.6-2.8%, depends on how each institution assesses the impact of the first phase of the 140-billion-baht cash handout.
Most projections remain at less than 3%, highlighting that the economy is still striving to reach the 3% benchmark.
For next year, Mr Nonarit said key risks include the "Trump Effect" and the state of the Chinese economy.
Trump's "America First" policies, including import tariff hikes against China and other countries, and threats to heavily tax BRICS-aligned nations avoiding the dollar, are expected to hinder global trade and economic growth, he said.
The state of China's economy must also be monitored, as growth has been sluggish for some time, partly attributed to longstanding structural issues such as a real estate bubble.
China was affected by the global economic slowdown, which reduced demand for its goods. As China's economy slows, the impact is inevitably felt in Thailand, said Mr Nonarit.
"When the global economy slows, it means the economic pie shrinks in size. For countries to survive, they must devise strategies to secure the largest possible share of the pie for their own benefit," he said.
"The question is do we have strategies to cope with these changes? If we are still underperforming or relying on outdated approaches, history shows that global crises often bring significant changes, and Thailand has repeatedly failed to adapt to these shifts. This led to a steady decline in economic growth -- from 7-8% in the past, to 3.6% before the pandemic, and now less than 3%."
Thailand must rev up the restructuring of the economy and business operations to adapt to a changing world, said Mr Nonarit.
"We need to reexamine the strengths of Thailand's economy and determine what we can offer the world as the global economic pie shrinks. As technologies change, the automotive industry is shifting to electric vehicles, and the electrical appliance industry, which was previously closely tied to Japan, is no longer thriving," he said.
"The Thai government wants to enter the chip manufacturing industry, but we lack the necessary expertise.
"The tourism sector remains the only area that still shows promise, but we must also invest in new machinery and tools to drive the economy, generate income and significantly boost exports for the country."