An academic believes that fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will return to Thailand Tuesday morning as part of a move to convince senators to back Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate during the vote in parliament Tuesday afternoon.
Thanaporn Sriyankul, director of the Institute of Politics and Policy Analysis, said Thaksin will return home on Tuesday now that he feels confident Pheu Thai will succeed in forming a government.
Thaksin, who was overthrown in a military coup in 2006, is widely believed to be Pheu Thai’s de facto leader.
Mr Thanaporn said that Thaksin will have to go to jail and serve time as a "political hostage" to assure pro-military parties — the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party and the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) — that Pheu Thai is ready to work with them.
Pheu Thai and 10 parties, including the UTN and PPRP, on Monday announced their potential governing coalition with 314 House seats.
Mr Thanaporn went on to say that the Supreme Court will on Tuesday deliver a ruling on a case involving former protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, accused of corruption in a project for the construction of police stations and living quarters while he served as deputy prime minister over a decade ago.
Mr Thanaporn said if the court finds Mr Suthep guilty, he will be sent to jail. And if any reprieve or amnesty is later offered to Thaksin, Mr Suthep may receive it too, he said, adding that this will spell an end to a political conflict between political foes that has continued for over a decade.
Yutthaporn Issarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, said that it remains to be seen whether Thaksin will arrive Tuesday morning because the outcome of the PM vote is expected to be known in the afternoon.
The political situation will remain uncertain before the vote, and even though Pheu Thai can now forge a coalition with 314 House seats, several senators still question the qualifications of its PM candidate, Srettha Thavisin, Mr Yutthaporn said.
Thaksin’s return from self-imposed exile is scheduled for Tuesday, the same day parliament will meet to select the country’s 30th prime minister.
Paetongtarn “Ung Ing” Shinawatra, his daughter and also a Pheu Thai PM candidate, posted on social media that her father was scheduled to land at Don Mueang Airport aboard his private jet on Tuesday at 9am.
According to a source, officials will wait for Thaksin’s arrival at the VIP landing zone. Upon arrival, he will be shown his arrest warrants before being escorted to the Police Club on Vibhavadi Rangsit Road before heading to the Supreme Court.
