The Pheu Thai Party is mulling whether to play the loyalty card -- where it will invite parties to form the new government only after they have voted for one of its candidates as prime minister, according to a source.
The business of forming a new government is growing more complicated by the day and Pheu Thai is left in the unenviable position of choosing to either abandon a friend or find some new ones to work with.
However, all options entail risks, prompting Pheu Thai to seek the least damaging way out politically, the source said.
The expert said so-called pro-democracy supporters would pressure Pheu Thai if it ditched the Move Forward Party (MFP) and the six other parties bound by the memorandum of understanding they signed to establish the next coalition government together.
The supporters have already hit the streets of Bangkok to protest against the majority of senators who either voted against or abstained from voting for MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat in his bid to become prime minister.
Only 13 senators backed him, which is a far cry from the support of at least 54 votes he needed to win the nomination.
On the second round of voting, his renomination was put on hold pending a Constitutional Court decision whether to consider a petition on the legality of Mr Pita's premiership bid being re-submitted. The court's decision is expected in two weeks.
Outside parliament, efforts to form a government have hit a snag with Pheu Thai finding itself right in the eye of the storm.
The MFP passed it the chance to form the government after its own efforts failed.
Pheu Thai is fully aware the Senate is likely to shun MFP again in any third round of voting.
Pressure on Pheu Thai
The Pheu Thai Party, now the lead party assembling a government, can either stick with the seven other MoU-bound parties and keep the prospect of building a coalition line-up in limbo, or invite some parties from the opposing camp, currently commanding 188 MP seats, to join the new government and drop the MFP.
The parties from the so-called conservative camp have made it clear in talks with Pheu Thai that they will not be part of a government with MFM as long as it pursues an amendment to Section 112 of the Criminal Code, or the lese majeste law.
But parting company with the MFP and tearing up the MoU exposes the Pheu Thai Party to the risk of igniting street protests by pro-demoracy groups who also include its own supporters.
The pressure would also intensify on Pheu Thai if it picked either or both the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party as coalition partners.
Pheu Thai would draw heavy flak for reneging its word during the May 14 general elections that it would not work with the so-called "uncle" parties, referring to those led by military bosses which it links to the 2014 military coup.
The "uncles" refer to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, a UTN former chief adviser and its prime ministerial candidate, and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, also the PPRP leader.
Avoid the knife's edge
The party reckons one way to avoid the knife's edge is to be seen not to be abandoning any party.
According to the source, Pheu Thai may move to nominate Srettha Thavisin, one of its three prime ministerial candidates, at the next round of voting for a prime minister possibly after the long weekend later this week.
Pheu Thai will be watching which other parties vote for Mr Srettha. Those that do will be extended an invitation to be included in the coalition government.
If that's the plan, parties which vote against or abstain from voting for Mr Srettha will end up in the opposition, the source said. "There's no ditching of parties to offend anyone. If all parties vote for [Mr Srettha], they would all be in the coalition line-up," the source said.
However, if after entering the coalition government any parties find it too crowded, they are free to leave, the source added.
If any MoU-bound parties left on their own accord, the Pheu Thai Party would save itself from criticism that it betrayed friends or trampled on pro-democracy interests.
The source added that if Mr Srettha's nomination failed to win enough votes in parliament, Pheu Thai still has two other candidates -- Paetongtarn "Ung Ing" Shinawatra and Chaikasem Nitisiri.
Ms Paetongtarn is head of the Pheu Thai Family, a position said to be on par with that of party leader.
Volatile situation
The source, however, admitted the situation surrounding the government's formation remains fluid.
The issue could be settled in the next round of prime ministerial voting, says Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute.
He warned that if the Pheu Thai Party slips at the chance of securing a prime ministerial nomination, it would be in danger of seeing the third largest party, Bhumjaithai, claiming the right to lead the government formation.
With 71 House seats, it is the largest party in the bloc of 188 MPs. Leaving the Pheu Thai Party in control of the new government would entrust it with immense bargaining powers over cabinet seat allocations and even the House's dissolution.
"It would be in the best interest of the [188-MP parties] to hang on to such powers," he said.
If Mr Srettha's bid for premiership proved futile, Ms Paetontarn would be next in line to be nominated.
But if the party was hesitant to put Ms Paetongtarn to the vote, the country might have to contend with a minority government of 188-MP coalition parties.
In the next round of voting, the eight Mou-bound parties might still work together. If a prime ministerial candidate from among their ranks fails to make the cut, it would be proof that their MoU commitment is as good as dead.
He ruled out any chance of the MFP backtracking on its Section 112 amendment policy in exchange for the Senate's vote for Mr Pita as prime minister.
Mr Stithorn said the Senate does not want the MFP in government. It favours the 188-MP parties hooking up with Pheu Thai.
"The Pheu Thai Party, to its detriment, has been rather hasty in pushing the government formation process along," he said.
In his view, Bhumjaithai might be tempted to stand by and watch the MFP and Pheu Thai fall out over the issue.
"The two parties are nearing the point of a messy break-up. Once there, the Pheu Thai Party will have no choice but to team up with the Bhumjaithai Party," he said.
Next PM vote critical
Virot Ali, a political scientist at Thammasat University, said the Constitutional Court may throw out the petition on the validity of Mr Pita's mooted prime ministerial renomination as some legal experts believe it is parliament's privilege to decide.
The next round would be critical for the survival of the MoU that binds the parties. The MFP would be under heavy pressure as it must choose whether to put its Section 112 amendment policy on the back burner or see itself ejected from the coalition line-up and the Bhumjaithai Party brought in in its place.
It would also be interesting to look at the reaction of pro-democracy supporters who would be annoyed if either or both of the "uncles" parties were welcomed into a Pheu Thai Party-led coalition fold.
If the MFP was to be pulled from the Pheu Thai Party-led coalition line-up, the void would be filled by several of the 188-MP parties and the coup-appointed Senate inclined to vote for a prime ministerial candidate from Pheu Thai.
Mr Virot suggested the MFP must make a concession over Section 112 by focusing on problems with legal enforcement rather than trying to amend the law.
If the law was side-stepped, Bhumjaithai might agree to take part in the Pheu Thai Party-led coalition with the MFP and the other MoU-bound parties as part of it.
Such a line-up would ensure sufficient numbers for a prime ministerial candidate of the bloc to pass without a co-election by the Senate.
The next prime minister vote might be deferred till next month or September, he said.
A source among the MoU-bound parties agreed the new prime minister might be named no later than the second week of next month.
The Pheu Thai Party stands to lose its credibility if it abandons the MFP although it might risk it in order to secure a safe and secure return for former Thaksin Shinawatra from self-imposed exile abroad.
Thaksin, a well-respected figure in the Pheu Thai Party, has vowed to return on Aug 10 and face jail time.
A source in Chartthaipattana Party, one of the 188-MP parties, said the ball is in Pheu Thai's court.
"The Pheu Thai Party must make up its mind and tell us outright if it plans to include the MFP as a coalition ally," the source said.
