Chinese tourist numbers might fall by 10-20% during the upcoming Lunar New Year due to lower safety confidence among travellers, following a Chinese actor who recently fell victim to a human trafficking gang using Thailand as a gateway, according to the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta).
Atta president Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn said the impact might be minimal if the government and related authorities quickly restore tourism confidence, ensuring that those panicked by the incident understand that Thailand is not a destination for scammers and the security authorities have measures in place to tackle illegal gangs, who are mostly based in neighbouring countries.
"As the news was widely spread and discussed in China, the tourism industry will undeniably have an impact. But we forecast that it might not be as severe as feared earlier after the police were able to help the actor within a few days," said Mr Sisdivachr.
He said cooperation from the Chinese government is also crucial, particularly in alerting people to beware of tactics employed by such scammers, offering fake job opportunities and using a Chinese-speaking decoy to target them in particular.
Mr Sisdivachr said even without the latest human trafficking case, Thailand might not see tremendous growth from the Chinese tourism market in 2025.
Based on 6.73 million Chinese arrivals in 2024, Thailand is expected to attract at least 7 million tourists from the country this year.
Mr Sisdivachr said most Chinese would continue to travel within their own country or opt for nearby nations instead, such as Japan, which is an increasingly popular destination due to the weak yen, while the Japanese government has also pledged to further ease visa restrictions for Chinese nationals this year.
"There's no sign that Beijing would support outbound tourism as regularly seen in the period before the pandemic. Due to the sluggish economy, Chinese are being encouraged to travel domestically. Many cities have also developed new attractions equipped with much better standards to entice both domestic and international visitors," he said.
Mr Sisdivachr said if Thailand is unable to offer new products to the Chinese, the country might lose its position as a top destination to visit.
Even though the Thai government has set an ambitious goal to boost tourism revenue via entertainment complexes, including legal casinos, he said these projects might not help regain the Chinese market as much as expected because for travellers who prefer gambling, they already have Macau as a convenient and affordable destination.
Meanwhile, the number of Chinese people keen to go to casinos is relatively small compared to other segments that cater to other types of tourism products.